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Game Thread CHAOS MAFIA VII- BUCK IN NEW YORK

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
If capsfan lives
Scum!DW or scum!Neon expects there to be:

7v1
-confirmed town capsfan
-a'lana and Sean clearing each other
-Rag and raven clearing each other
-Minish
-DW
-Neon

Scum kills Sean
6v1
-confirmed town capsfan
-confirmed town a'lana
-Rag and Raven clearing each other
-Minish
-Neon
-DW

Minish is lynched

Night

5v1
-confirmed town capsfan
-confirmed town a'lana
-Rag and Raven clearing each other
-Neon
-DW

-scum kills a'lana

Next day is:
4v1

Neon and DW is PoE OR town tinfoils a team of Rag and Raven opening up possibility for a mislynch

If one of Neon and Minish is lynched here scum is boxed in at f3.

If Rag or Raven is lynched and scum nk's the other scum has a chance in f3

Now for this 4v1 if Rag or Raven is killed
-confirmed town capsfan
-confirmed town a'lana
-confirmed town Rag OR Raven
-Hapi
-DW

game also locked

If Minish is killed instead of Sean:

6v1
-confirmed capsfan
-Sean and a'lana clearing each other
-Rag and Raven clearing each other
-Neon
-DW

Scum is always bound to be boxed in in the 6v1 with caps alive scenario if they kill Minish.
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
...I dont even know if scum was given a chance to change their night action after Sean cleared me because its also possible they would have killed Sean regardless if the clear

I cant tell if they were killing sean anyway or were able to change their nk target
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
...wait in the 6v1 with minish dead caps sean alive scenario scum can in fact win by lynching one of the pairs, killing the other and repeating the same steps next day-night cycle taking caps neon DW to f3.

But the outcome is literally the same very single time. DW or neon has no incentive to kill minish over killing sean
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
Hi I haven't read **** but apparently the buck's dead and that means I win apparently I don't care much what happens here because I've already won but just for everyone who does care a'lana's unbuckable.
If you aren't the buck how can you see whether people are buckable or not?
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
....so apparently DW claims some sort of lyncher ish role focused on killing the buckifier?

But how can they know how buckable someone is
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
My clear of Minish is many things but this is not exactly it



Minish I do want to ask. As vaguely and legally as you are allowed why does a bartender help clear you?

Question 2 electric Boogaloo have marshmallows ever meant or done something in previous games? Asking for the staypuft marshmallow man he's a personal friend of mine we are lobbying to get marshmallows more global recognition

But no seriously do marshmallows mean anything

And uhh

I have a tinfoil I've been keeping to myself because I'm already "throwing" for doing Chaos and I would hate to add another crazy take, should I share it?

I will only listen to Minish's answer for these questions.
.... OK I'm rereading some and came across this post where you did talk about marshmallows
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
numbers died because of his transgressions

i've recently come to the conclusion that numbers was probably behind the time warp, and i believe that is likely the reason he flipped green
since other people have said their targets and lived, i'll openly claim that i targeted numbers twice last night
what happened last night to result in numbers dying as town was pretty complicated and even if i was allowed to fully explain it it would probably not make a lot of sense

from my perspective though, the NK is still missing and numbers died per my expectations. I've recently come to conclude (with reasonably high certainty) why numbers flipped town instead of purple, and it has to do with the time warp. I probably won't be able to soft the specifics in an unambiguous way.
i did not do anything that i (or i imagine storm) would consider redirection last night. Number's kill is the only bullet aside from the presumed mafia kill that i anticipated the existence of, and I believe that bullet ended up in his own head via a sequence of events that i do not believe involved redirection.
i believe it was related to numbers' role (i strongly suspect this but can not say with certainty)
from my understanding, an event involving numbers triggered the time warp, which reset the game. Clearly not all aspects of the game were reset since dead players remained dead. Other aspects probably were reset, which would explain why numbers didn't flip per my expectations.
I was surprised to learn that it was associated with numbers, though its hard to say whether or not thats because it has a strange nature or because of storm's slapdash nature as a mod
At the time i believed that was the case. Later correspondence with the moderator changed that impression. Its more accurate to say it was related to numbers than to me though.
we can't, really, at least not straight.

I'm also not following the entirity of the game because too much is going on for me to process.

Night 1 numbers was planning on killing you. I've softed stopping that and numbers died instead as a result. (though not via a redirect). I was expecting numbers to flip purple (which people suspect means as the buck), but then the night ended early and the game reset via time warp. I believe one of the consequences of this time warp was that numbers died with his original town role instead of as his purple role. Exlight is claiming that if i were to have redirected numbers kill to himself, that the kill would have been redirected to a random player instead.

there's some info that hopefully isn't specific enough that i die
From my perspective and discounting unknowns it should be nearly impossible for raven to be scum, and it makes sense to treat him as town for solving purposes.

@RavenRaziel98 Was it conjecture combined with in-thread information that made you think i was able to clear you, or was it a result of some privileged info that you had?
if another grenade enters play i request it be tossed to me
ex probably softed bartender earlier when he said that if i redirected numbers he would have expected there to be a ~1/12 chance of numbers hitting himself, implying that he gave numbers a drink. (i can't remember the exact odds he gave)
i would guess that numbers was given the item, yeah, or else it was something his role started with that wasn't implied in the rolename (which along with his target was all i had access to). Its technically possible i got the item and it caused me to cause the reset upon killing numbers but if thats the case storm didn't tell me i received it.
which can be done via methods i can't claim but raven probably can
i said this earlier but killing from the trio lowers the PoE by the smallest amount. Killing me or raven confirms the other. Killing someone from the trio doesn't confirm anyone. I would guess that Minish was the mafia kill and sean died via some other mechanism.

Now that me and you are conftown though one of us should be biting the bucket tonight.
...

-Rag seems to know numbers caused the time warp but only after asking the host
-seemed to think Numbers was the buckifer or buckified and that this is the reason he should have flipped purple? and that the time warp caused him to flip as green
-Rag says Numbers had a bullet that backfired but no redicrection?
-talks about 'Number's original role' indicating that numbers wasnt the first buckifier despite the fact that since Raven got it third Rag would have gotten it second and numbers would have been first to give to him so numbers would have been the first buckifier yet Rag seems to think he started out as town?
-but Rag also cant have been the first buckifier as he seems to have caused fexts death by his own role
-Rag says he targeted numbers twice but that it wasnt a redirection
-asks to be targeted by a grenade. Another part of his role? his role seems complicated enough already.
-Raven clear adds up with buckifier stuff in hindsight
-ok this is likely never mafia its too convoluted to be mafia

@Ragnarokio is your role in any way related to the buckifier like DW's is?

-why do you think Numbers was buckified at basically N1 but you also seem to think he wasnt the first buckifier?

it seems like numbers got buckified during N1 and you seemed to know that but then the time warp gave the buck to you somehow??
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
Alright so I checked all the FT I could find (which just seems to be the OP of the game thread) and did not find anything suggesting the narrator wanted a fight between Mongoose and a'lana to occur. Nor do I see anything suggesting to "destroy something beautiful". I might just be blind could you point this out to me?


It's a bit hard for someone to towncase themselves off a jokepost made when the thread was full of jokeposts? I don't see Goose having ignored anything you said except the "I prefer fight clubs" comment which seemed like a joke.
Oh wait you're talking about Ex here. Yeah I guess I can see how you might see it as being a bit eyebrow raising but given your case on him is just "because he always is" as far as I can tell I don't see it as particularly concerning because there's not that much to respond to.
That said his case on Minish seems entirely lacking in substance, which is a little more concerning to me.
Vote: KoD
Thought about this some and I'm not a fan of you trying to go for two cases that seem to be solely based on "this person has been scum before, thus they are scum again". I get it's early game and trying to pressure people is beneficial, but trying to pressure people using a case that literally does not seem to connect to this game at all does not seem like it'll be effective in doing so which kinda removes any towniness that I could've seen from those "cases".
If you think KoD's just being KoD again why vote him? Wouldn't that be at worst NAI in your mind? Which means from that perspective it'd not voteworthy?


I understand KoD's a weird player but in my limited experiences he doesn't usually seem to go after people for literally nothing. The things he goes after people can seem a bit odd especially early in the game, but from what I've seen the tend to actually be things that are related to the game. Going after someone for being scum in the past, or rather multiple someones, doesn't feel like it is, and the lack of actual pressure I feel the noncase creates prevents me from seeing it as an attempt to gauge reactions.
...What.
Also this vote is not bold so it might not count.


I feel like they're pushes designed to look like pressure pushes. Which early on makes him look better in town's eyes. But because of the lack of cases backing them they don't actually create pressure. Basically they're an attempt to look helpful withour actually being helpful.
I disagree-- there's a pretty big difference between "heads up everyone, this person is someone you need to watch out for" and "this person is scum now because they were scum before". One's a warning to other players to be careful, one's a baseless accusation. It's clearly the latter, and I see it as having intentionally been framed as such to look like a pressure vote.
As I recall, you voted Mongoose on the basis of them previously having been scum. The interaction with ExLight where you asked him to explain why he wasn't scum also heavily implied you thought he was, especially since the phrasing of the question was so similar to what you said when you vote Mongoose, and you're only apparent basis for this was "because he basically always is".


You've barely been around since those posts until. Hard to expect someone to spend time pushing when they're basically not around. Which also means I haven't exactly had a chance to interact with you since considering this is your first time even acknowledging my vote on you.


Why would that make me scum with Minish. I don't think you've called Minish scum once this game, so going aggro on you accomplishes zero in the way of shielding her.
But to be very clear. I am not shielding ExLight, Mongoose, or Minish from anything. There is not a single one of those three I would oppose the voting of as long as there was an actual reason for that vote. You just haven't had such a reason for calling ExLight or Mongoose scum and calling two people scum for having been scum before did not sit well with me in the slightest.


I haven't done anything that should prevent your participation. You should still be able participate while beibg suspected. Unbench yourself.
They're clearly framed as accusations at the very least, and didn't you call for Ex to vote Mongoose before you started calling Ex himself scum? I don't know that you've made any pushes to get other people to vote ExLight but you'd also barely posted since then. No you don't get content by doing nothing but you don't get much from accusations that don't even pretend to have any basis either.
I'm not. I'm just less confused as to why you'd think I'm shielding Ex given you've actually accused him.


Sorry, I missed that. But in fairness, the way you worded it definitely seemed to imply to me that I was the one benching you.


At least trying to have something resembling a reason generally makes a pressure vote have more pressure.


Alright I'll admit that maybe my use of the word "case" was a bit of a stretch. But they don't pretend not to be accusations. And because they do seem to play at being reasonably serious accusations despite the lack of a reasonably viable basis, that means they appear to be trying to be pressure votes/accusations. Except since the basis literally does not even try to look connected to the game I feel that takes out a lot of the pressure that should come from them.
first page, those are all their interactions towards KoD, still reading
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
I agree with Hapi that "don't be defensive towards Fext at all" is a pretty poor take. Obviously since he's sick we should be somewhat easier on him but that is not equivalent to "you may not defend against his accusations".
Prior to Botwolf my average scum game was relatively low activity compared to my town game and I'd attempt to be much more amicable than how my town game is-- to the point where at least two players on one forum I play on have established their method of reading me as pretty much being "DW's disagreeableness is directly equal to their towniness" and one of these players has proclaimed that this method had literally never failed them. Botwolf was the first game as Mafia where I ever attempted actually trying to match my townplay in any significant way, with clearly at least somewhat successful results. Presumably that means as of last game me being like this is NAI.


Is this a joke or do you actually feel Neon has done something to out herself?


Fext's vote on Neon is not great yeah considering it just seems to be "gifs are annoying" not even that he thinks she's scummy that I recall just annoyance.
Seanzie I think has started giving reasons for vseeonh Neon though not much more clear ones than what he started with beyond the "you didn't answer my question" complaint earlier.


Despite Caps often seeming to be on a streak of being scum of that I don't know the length of, I don't think I've ever seen him claim that he's "glad he's finally town" in a game where he's not actually town, meanwhile I believe he's done so in 2/3 of the town games of his I've read any portion of. It's a bit of a small thing but it doesn't seem like it occurs to scum Caps to mention this from what I've seen. I could be wrong here since I'm sure I haven't seen anywhere close to all his games, but from my knowledge and little else making me want to read him either way thus far I'd pin the lack of apparent excitement on the phoneposting.


...I don't like this vote. I don't know a lot of scum who will openly OMGUS because of how bad it looks and I agree with what KoD said that scum like to play safe but I think OMGUS votes tend to be ineffective.

KoD's past several posts have been feeling a lot better to me. I agree with a lot of what he has to say re: scum and hedging, disagree that Seanzie asking Neon to take two seconds to grab a link is scummy but vaguely understand how he got there and agree that Seanzie's vote seems OMGUSy now that it's pointed out (as is his KoD vote for that matter), have already talked about Neon and Numbers being not w/w a couple times, and probably a few other things.
Unvote: KoD


If there are better candidates for you to vote who are they and why aren't you voting them?

How so? Especially in my case given I backed off KoD once he started getting piled on which could make my interactions with him earlier in the Day distancing.
Off the top of my head working from a description from a player in game like two years ago, it's a winconless indep who can "pass the buck" to someone else each night making them winconless until they pass the buck to someone else.
Basically Storm just likes seeing a lot of people lose I think.
What kinds of town roles are usually unbuckable? Ones directly associated with the buck? Are there always town roles that are unbuckable, if not how confident are you that there would be in this game?
(For reasons I would like Minish to be the one to answer these questions even if someone else has the info to do so.)
So you don't think there's reason to believe town has unbuckable roles?
That's interesting, considering I have reason to believe you're unbuckable.
Rag is buckable so she can't be scum probably.
If we lynch the corpse tonight we'd be at 6:1, then tomorrow at 5:1. Probably me/Min/alana would all still be alive for not being clear, leaving mafia to shoot in Caps/Neon/Raven/Rag. We lynch in me/Min/alana and lets say we're wrong then we go into the night at 4:1. Day again and it's 3:1 and if we lynch wrong again we lose.

If we don't waste today on the corpse and we lynch wrong in me/Min/alana it's 5:1 tonight. 4:1 tomorrow, we lynch wrong again 2:1 the next Day, win because there's only one suspect left.

If alana's not clear we definitely shouldn't lynch the corpse. Not doing so ensures we almost no chance at losing while if we do do so we would be able to. The priority order for lynching should be Min > Myself (as my claim implicates her so her being town would implicate me) > alana
No, they don't. Lynching the corpse decreases the amount of mistakes we can make in the Min/me/alana lynching because if we **** up twice we lose in a hanged corpse world, and that is not the case in an unhanged corpse world. Granted my numbers are wrong since I forgot Seanzie was alive and I'd have to do more math to see what haplens with Seanzie.
There are 5 people tomorrow in that world (four town), but only two suspects, where in a hanged corpse world, there is one more person and one more suspect. In the unhanged corpse world, only 40% of the players remaining are uncleared, whereas 50% of them are uncleared in the hanged corpse world.
(Math has not yet been done to account Seanzie.)
Raven and Rag clear each other. That means they're both town because they can't both be scum.
(Plus my claim says she's buckable which also says she's town.)
page 2-page 3 of DW's iso

-seems to think Fext's shade on Neon is bad but no hard clearing interactions with fext
-backs off of KoD but also later on argues that she shouldnt be cleared from the flip which is a good look
-seems to know Rag is buckable and im not as part of their role
-seems unconcerned with self pres
-I want to townread the arguments against lynching ExLight

...
 

a'lana

cotton candy
Joined
May 31, 2022
but like the game is still ongoing and everyone has things going for them?

Neon's claims have almost seemed too convoluted to come from scum, she seems spewed from fext and DW just seems anti self pres, was one of the only people to argue against the exlight's suboptimal af lynch and seems clear from KoD interactions even though they backed off of each other later on. The problem is also they are both spewed and Capsfan seems to have info that there a three mafia?


in theory DW's claim could be pure BS compared to other mech stuff but on play I'd almost townread DW? and they didnt seem to know if they were 3p if DW was telling the truth.

inb4 its capsfan and hes a mafia aligned IC or something

but then again why would capsfan give that kind of info as scum? there would literally be no need to talk about 'I can confirm there is one more maf and not a 3p' as mafia when others are tinfoiling the exitence of a 3p, it would narrow the POE even if capsfan is not in it by confirming that we can trust spew reads
 

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