Game Thread Amazing Fantasy: A Spider-Man Mafia Prequel [NIGHT 10--HIATUS]

[Princess Abigail]

View attachment 71989
Edit: To avoid multiposting.
I stand by all of my posts, even if they're considered sub-par by the rest of y'all. I don't typically post without reason, and I think all of my posts have good reasons to be there!! >.>

Oh they are fine posts they are just wolfy

 

[Vroendal]

Oh they are fine posts they are just wolfy

Oh, well if that's all then that's alright then. :pp
I'm a wolfy player what can I say?

 

[Deleted member 97076]

newspaper was very well done and often is

I don't know who bailed lain out, but the obvious answers would be: one of lain's freinds, someone with a lot of money who wanted to see if anything happened, and someone who felt bad that they started the game in prison.

Letters to the editors all come from players and while the d0 ones are probably often going to be spammy they're probably still worth reading into just in case.

I would guess the average player would not be too worried about posting around the same time as their main account, particularly if its in a 30-player game and the middle of an active period. Its also why tevish's case isn't too strong, although i still think its indicitive.

i think someone shortlisted like 6 players to be kingpin. I think depending the window you want to apply, i'd go as little as 1in2 or 1in4 players posting around the same time. IF they don't care, easier for us i guess.

 

[KingofDominaria]

@ Neon:

You are free to disagree; however, there are a plethora of mafia games played daily (probably just on MU alone) that more than reasonably demonstrate how playing off of D1 opening posts does, in fact, NOT work. That is, your personal experience does not matter in this regard when stats say otherwise.

And by way of a small example: You've never worn a seatbelt while driving so it must be safe to do so. Consider, then, all the data regarding vehicle accidents and the use (or non-use) of a seatbelt. The data trumps your personal experience.


As far as whether or not Vro is breadcrumbing -- I don't feel he is. HOWEVER, I'm not actually being critical in reading his posts either so I could have easily missed something too.

 

[Ragnarokio]

On a side note, if the means exist for me to establish a private line of communication with one of the Ambers at any point without the use of money, whether directly or through an intermediary, I would appreciate anyone willing to assist in this regard!!

The transformative roles the constitute much of this game could take pretty much any player in pretty much any direction.

I appreciate that you're pointing this out!! o.o I haven't done so myself because I have my reasons.

To answer this question for myself, because I'm kinda bored, I'm not town-reading anyone. Out of the 9 alignments said to be in this game, Origin-Aligned is insinuated to be the most populated as of game start. While some players may become town, they may also become something else, and I don't think truly accurate readings can be made at this time, or maybe even ever.

To me, this reads like I'm to understand the game in the way I've discussed, and that it's the Origin Aligned players who are well populated and more likely to transform, in a game about transformations, than others might. Of course, feel free to read the game however you like!! I think the doubt is supposed to be there. For myself though, I will act upon the parameters of what I've been told, and we've all been told there are 9 alignments who may or may not all be in the game already. Sprinkle in a few roles of a few alignments here and there, populate the rest with Origin, and you have your game.

I also happen to agree with your second statement, but from the other side of the perspective!! :pp

context is turin saying something like he feels it'll be hard to engage with the game until all the transofrming goofballs take their places. Vroendal presumably then means it will be hard for him to engage with the game until he transforms.

Here's a list of posts that struck me one way or another from vroendal. The general image they paint is that vroendal is origin aligned and has a transformative role. Vroendal seems to think of this game as being something resembling a free-for-all rather than a town vs mafia event with frills. Either because of this or for other reasons he seems almost suspiciously unwilling to provide reads; at one point he says this is becuase he's bored, but he also answers more mysteriously other times with "i have my reasons" and "i feel uncomfortable [giving reads] and will be abstaining for this time >.>". Note the included shifty eyes for maximum shiftiness.

He is almost certainly origin aligned and almost certianly has a transformational role, although its possible he's instead committed to pretending to be in that position from the get-go. He seems to expect that his role will allow him to align with varying groups of people and so might be being careful not to make ties with others currently, although he specifically wants to make contact with amber for unknown reasons. He may or may not having some posting restriction or other special reason which results in him avoiding posting reads.

 

[Ragnarokio]

@ Neon:

You are free to disagree; however, there are a plethora of mafia games played daily (probably just on MU alone) that more than reasonably demonstrate how playing off of D1 opening posts does, in fact, NOT work. That is, your personal experience does not matter in this regard when stats say otherwise.

And by way of a small example: You've never worn a seatbelt while driving so it must be safe to do so. Consider, then, all the data regarding vehicle accidents and the use (or non-use) of a seatbelt. The data trumps your personal experience.


As far as whether or not Vro is breadcrumbing -- I don't feel he is. HOWEVER, I'm not actually being critical in reading his posts either so I could have easily missed something too.

Do you have these stats?

 

[Ragnarokio]

This post is off topic:

i'm genuinely interested in seeing stats measuring how possible reading is in mafia. I have seen some players track their stats by submitting a guess before the end of the day and then checking how often their guess was correct, but they tend to lack consistent or clear methodology and so its hard to get anything substantial from those. They'll also typically include games with mechanics in them, and so things like cop results could end up skewing the results a lot.

There was also a kind of discord werewolf variant played where one player is given a gun and has to choose to shoot one of two players, and wins if they shoot the guilty player. In this game there is literally no winning strategy, mathematically speaking, as all players are operating on no information aside from testimony. Apparently in this variant some players had high enough winrates that they couldn't be explained by random chance, although in real life studies surrounding lying have generally shown that people can not tell when others are lying, which would suggest this kind of game shouldn't be winnable in a vacuum and that something else, like my misunderstanding the mechanics or players throwing as a joke sometimes could explain the high winrate.

Regardless, I've found very little in the way of whether or not its possible to read people in mafia at all, let alone whether or not its possible to read people based on their opening post, so I'd be surprised if there were stats that existed that rejected the latter proposition.

 

[Zinger2099]

Middle of the Day. Schools are in session.​

Picture of Midtown High donated by famed Daily Bugle photog. Lance Bannon
​

Don't skip class kids. You could get suspended or expelled. Your teachers will take attendance, and scholarship recommendation reports are coming due...

•••••
​

Day 1: Amazing Second Vote Count​

a.k.a. The "We are approaching the 72-hour mark so anyone who hasn't posted even once yet is about to be put on blast for violating rule 2.4" Vote Count

Vroendal (1): Neon Princess Abigail
The Kingpin of Crime (1): The Daily Bugle

Not Voting: Aaarrrgh, Asfinyti, Asfinyti, Asfinyti, Captan_Lunch, DaRkStAr Andjalo, Doc, dragonteacup, ExLight, Freddeh, HangryHangryHippo, lain, Killjoy262, KingofDominaria, Morbid Minish, neosilk Paranoid King, Ragnarokio, Rubik, Silverfish, Skystone, Spiritual Mask Salesman, Stability, Storm, theatog, TheCapsFan, Turin, Vroendal

With 21 available votes, it takes 11 votes to reach a Majority (now whether or not Maj is required to Remove someone is another matter).

Day 1 will end on August 19th, at 5 AM, Eastern Time (click here for an accurate to the second countdown timer).

Spoiler: Vote Log

1. Killjoy votes Storm
2. Killjoy unvotes
3. Neon Princess Abigail votes Vroendal
4. The Daily Bugle votes The Kingpin of Crime [404: Error, vote link not found]
5. Ragnarokio votes "The Kingpin of Crime" [404: Error, Player Name not found]
6. TheCapsFan votes "The Kingpin of Crime" [404: Error, Player Name not found]
7. Rubik votes "The Kingpin of Crime" [404: Error, Player Name not found]
8. ExLight votes "The Kingpin of Crime" [404: Error, Player Name not found]
9. Freddeh votes "The Kingpin of Crime" [404: Error, Player Name not found]
10. lain votes "The Kingpin of Crime" [404: Error, Player Name not found]; [#NULL: Error, vote not found]

​

Quick-Jump Links


<< Start of Day | < Last Vote Count | Game Status Post | Today's Daily Bugle | Next Vote Count > | End of Day >>​

 

[KingofDominaria]

@ Rag:

I'm not going to entertain your question.

 

[Storm]

You cant vote the Puppet. You need to find the Puppeteer

 

[Princess Abigail]

Oh, well if that's all then that's alright then. :pp
I'm a wolfy player what can I say?

I dunno Vro I've rarely wolf read you before

 

[Princess Abigail]

@ Neon:

You are free to disagree; however, there are a plethora of mafia games played daily (probably just on MU alone) that more than reasonably demonstrate how playing off of D1 opening posts does, in fact, NOT work. That is, your personal experience does not matter in this regard when stats say otherwise.

And by way of a small example: You've never worn a seatbelt while driving so it must be safe to do so. Consider, then, all the data regarding vehicle accidents and the use (or non-use) of a seatbelt. The data trumps your personal experience.


As far as whether or not Vro is breadcrumbing -- I don't feel he is. HOWEVER, I'm not actually being critical in reading his posts either so I could have easily missed something too.

I'd argue dearest KoD there's plenty more games where day 1 posts and opening posts are in fact AI than not otherwise why even play the game

 

[Ragnarokio]

I'd argue dearest KoD there's plenty more games where day 1 posts and opening posts are in fact AI than not otherwise why even play the game

for fun

 

[Princess Abigail]

I mean I do keep stats

And statistically speaking correctly killing mafia d1 isn't even that rare but also amusingly statistically towns lose much more often when they are correct day 1 than when they are wrong lol

 

[Princess Abigail]

My favorite stat is my 1 in 4 pet read which has about an 80% accuracy rate but everyone trolls me for. It's been right in most champs games over the last 2 years too lol but people don't believe in it. I probably won't use it this game just cause of the nature of the game I don't think it works here but the idea is

Say I am the first wagon to 3 votes

The VC is like

Neon: Vro, Rag, Ex

The idea is that there is always exactly one mafia in those 4 names

On the first wagon to reach 3 votes in a game. The concept has been proven right statistically way > rand