Mafia 5: Arkham City

[Baysiderulez]

Because I am still a little bit on to the how yesterday ended... And being called stupid for role claiming. I would like to point out that in game 4, the doctor could protect whomever they wanted, how many times they wanted, in whatever order they wanted, provided they did not protect themselves. Here's that PM.

Role PMs

Welcome to Majora’s Mask Mafia, Link to Present. You are The Great Fairy. Wise and benevolent, you have decided to help the heroes of Termina combat the evils that plague their land by healing all those returning from battle. You are the Town Doctor. Each night you may PM me the name of one person. That person will be saved from any nightkill attacks. You may target the same person in a row, but you may NOT target yourself. You win with the town, when all the evils corrupting Termina are destroyed.
Once you have received this PM, please confirm in the SignUp thread that you have read it.

So now that that has been cleared up, I hope you will see it was entirely valid of me, to role claim and expect doctor protection each and every night.

As for what happened in the night. Illmatic died, as well as miakiu. They are picking off not strong players, probably in hopes that you will start to pick off players like myself, axle, keyshe. Now while Axle appeared innocent, he could be the godfaddah. But I currently doubt that at this moment. Keyshe on the other hand has not been investigated yet. Perhaps she'll be my target tonight, (or perhaps Jden). Notice how illmatic, one of my prime suspects was picked off. Perhaps this was an effort to frame me. No scum willingly goes towards one person during the day then nightkills them at night. That would be plain stupid.

Axle I will hope you will take this opportunity to trust me. I know you are innocent (except for perhaps being the godfather) and you should be able to trust that I am innocent from deciphering so. (After all if you are the godfather you know I'm innocent). The town does need to look at us, and being at each other's throats will not solve anything.

Here's my conclusions from last night:

• A group of scum try to kill someone else, but the weapon is sabotaged and it fails. Most likely the murderer was roleblocked by Mikau Incarnate

What if... as I mentioned during day 2. There is a thief in this game? That would explain the weapon being sabotaged, and it would also give us a person who knows who a scum is.

 

[MikauIncarnate]

Wow, that sucks. Well good luck guys, hope the town wins again this time.

 

[Kybyrian]

Perhaps I've jumped the gun here... we're very aware that the Mafia have the ability to nightkill, and from the looks of it, our other killer is the Vigilante. This means that we could have the absence of a Serial Killer, which almost rules out Jo, unless she is the SK and was roleblocked or targeted the same person as somebody else. Either way, I'm hesitant on voting for Jo right now. If anything this nightkill sounds like an attempt to frame Jo. Knocking one townie out during the night to help get rid of one during the day; it would successfully secure another day for the Mafia and lead to a free night for them.

Unvote: Baysiderulez

 

[Jimmy]

Continuing from my last post regarding what happened last night, I took a look at Mikau's posts and his only real accusation was against Bay. It was a pretty tenuous one, and most likely he was a bit suspicious and decided to jump on the bandwagon since he didn't held anyone else in suspicion.

Yet illmatic is far more interesting. He spent a bit of time sparring with Bay, and perhaps whoever killed him wished to draw attention to her. But since I think it far more likely the serial killer is responsible for the death of illmatic, I've taken note of who he accused and who accused him.

Kybyrian and Hero of Music both voted for illmatic. Ky gave no reasoning, even when prompted - and since then only Axle pulled him up for it - although he accused him of poor play rather than scumminess. Hero of Music argued that there were inconsistencies with illmatic's posting, which was something me and Bay discussed earlier. It should also be said Ky was very happy to vote for Hero of Time and for Bay. He seems to be bandwagoning a bit, and illmatic pointed that out.

The other figure who has drawn my attention is TheGreen. Some of his posts have been joking around, he had a fair old argument with Bay earlier in the game and voted for Ky at one point for being unhelpful. He seems to me to have been doing a lot of stirring.

Since we've gone 2 days without a lynch, I'm not going to bother so much with IGMEOY and FoS. We need to get a lynch today, especially given the possibility that 3 townies could die tonight.

Vote: Kybyrian

 

[illmatic]

Nightkilled on the second night again... Oh well, good luck town! Play smart!

 

[Baysiderulez]

Alright so I caught up with my notes again.

I wanna draw your attention to those who were completely silent during "day 2"
Stallord, Generations, Link To Present, and DracoMajora. Along with our two replacements Korp and Josh (they have both failed to post even saying they are in the game).

- So basically saying while there's a chance the above could be scum. Even if they are they have likely forgotten about the game and/or don't care about it anymore. Hence saying its likely that even at night they would fail to make a vote. We might as well wait for them to be modkilled rather then exploring them further...

Onward to yesterdays *actual* lurkers.
Green Goron made 1 post
Arkvoodle made 3 posts
TheGreen made 1 post
Kokiron made 1 post
Taboe made 1 post
Supersilly made 2 posts
Meego7 made 1 post

Most suspicious out of all this is Meego's absence in game. She is normally a relatively active member, very useful in scum hunting, and she is also skilled in finding way to stay alive. This sudden change in behavior leads me to believe that she is scum... Now I haven't checked to see her other posts on the forum, to see if she's just been inactive in general. But assuming she has been online, this is very unusual behavior for Meego.

I find it interesting that after TheGreen and also Kokiron, have fallen inactive, when they both played a major part in suspecting me in day one. They had the opportunity to lynch me day two and didn't take it. TheGreen could have been busy with school which would explain the inactivity, as for Kokiron, I find his absence very peculiar as well.

Based off of posting habits during the last day period... FoS: Meego, Kokiron, and TheGreen.

As I mentioned earlier... actually sometime on day one... if we consider a 1:3 ratio to a 1:5 ratio... we have anywhere between 5 and 9 mafia among us. I doubt all the mafia are displaying the same characteristics in game. I gander 1-2 are lurking in the shadows, 1 is very active, and 1-2 is active enough to not be considered lurking but also not active enough to draw attention. If there are more, then I wouldn't be surprised if they are on the above list of "risking to be modkilled"

Also just so its out there again... -Investigations-
Night 1: Jden (unknown, roleblocked)
Night 2: Axle the Beast (innocent)

Anyways that's all for now. I have to re-read the posts from yesterday as well as voting habits if I am to get any further.

 

[Meego]

Hrm, yes. I actually am surprised myself at the lack of things to say about people here. I have got caught up in the middle of things in the past and I think I wanted to steer clear if it this time. Well, I suppose I could say Ky looks a bit suspicious the way he wtih drew his vote like that. But that could easily be realization. I don't actually have much to say, nobody is doing anything that is leading ua anywhere.

 

[Kybyrian]

Continuing from my last post regarding what happened last night, I took a look at Mikau's posts and his only real accusation was against Bay. It was a pretty tenuous one, and most likely he was a bit suspicious and decided to jump on the bandwagon since he didn't held anyone else in suspicion.

Yet illmatic is far more interesting. He spent a bit of time sparring with Bay, and perhaps whoever killed him wished to draw attention to her. But since I think it far more likely the serial killer is responsible for the death of illmatic, I've taken note of who he accused and who accused him.

Kybyrian and Hero of Music both voted for illmatic. Ky gave no reasoning, even when prompted - and since then only Axle pulled him up for it - although he accused him of poor play rather than scumminess. Hero of Music argued that there were inconsistencies with illmatic's posting, which was something me and Bay discussed earlier. It should also be said Ky was very happy to vote for Hero of Time and for Bay. He seems to be bandwagoning a bit, and illmatic pointed that out.

The other figure who has drawn my attention is TheGreen. Some of his posts have been joking around, he had a fair old argument with Bay earlier in the game and voted for Ky at one point for being unhelpful. He seems to me to have been doing a lot of stirring.

Since we've gone 2 days without a lynch, I'm not going to bother so much with IGMEOY and FoS. We need to get a lynch today, especially given the possibility that 3 townies could die tonight.

Vote: Kybyrian

I admitted to bandwagoning... and I admit that now we're getting somewhere! Bring it on!

Or, like I said to illmatic, "COME AT ME, BRO!"

 

[David]

@Bay: I just wanted to say that Generations has been really busy for the past while. She was slammed with tests and projects at school. She told me last night that she was going to catch up this weekend. Just so you know.

As for the game, it's sad that we lost two power roles last night. As for what to do now, I'm going to continue to watch Hero of Time. Some of his actions don't line up in my head.

 

[arkvoodle]

Seeing as Axle was innocent, that smashes that theory of him being guilty. (Obvious theory is obvious)

Now I completely turn my attention to Bay. Seeing as no-one has directly targeted her, or roleblocked her, as said in Durion's little summary paragraph, I can assume that she could be a possible role blocker, or in fact scum, who is watching and waiting for the right moment to strike and take down those who she sees as the biggest threat to her metaphorical organisation.

For now;

IGMEOY: Baysiderulez

 

[Kybyrian]

Seeing as Axle was innocent, that smashes that theory of him being guilty. (Obvious theory is obvious)

Now I completely turn my attention to Bay. Seeing as no-one has directly targeted her, or roleblocked her, as said in Durion's little summary paragraph, I can assume that she could be a possible role blocker, or in fact scum, who is watching and waiting for the right moment to strike and take down those who she sees as the biggest threat to her metaphorical organisation.

For now;

IGMEOY: Baysiderulez

I don't get it... you're getting the info that Axle is innocent from Bay, and you say he is definitely innocent because of it, but then you go on to say that Bay is scum, even though you're getting your information on who's innocent from her?

 

[Baysiderulez]

Seeing as Axle was innocent, that smashes that theory of him being guilty. (Obvious theory is obvious)

Now I completely turn my attention to Bay. Seeing as no-one has directly targeted her, or roleblocked her, as said in Durion's little summary paragraph, I can assume that she could be a possible role blocker, or in fact scum, who is watching and waiting for the right moment to strike and take down those who she sees as the biggest threat to her metaphorical organisation.

For now;

IGMEOY: Baysiderulez

The doctor very well could have very well protected me last night. The only people who would then know I was was protected was the doctor his/herself, and any person who may have targeted me with a nightkilling ability. It doesn't appear I was targeted by anyone with a nightkilling ability, though, so why would that be? Perhaps they assume I will be targeted by the doctor, so it will be a waste of a night. That doesn't explain however, why I was roleblocked on night one... If the mafia blocked me on night one, why wouldnt they block me on night two too?

Unless Maiku didn't believe my claim on day 1 and blocked me that night. I still think there's a good chance the Mafia have roleblocker though. It just doesn't make sense why they wouldn't target me, last night.

EBWODP:

@Bay: I just wanted to say that Generations has been really busy for the past while. She was slammed with tests and projects at school. She told me last night that she was going to catch up this weekend. Just so you know.

As for the game, it's sad that we lost two power roles last night. As for what to do now, I'm going to continue to watch Hero of Time. Some of his actions don't line up in my head.

I wasn't accusing those people of anything, I hope you realized. Other then being completely inactive during day 2. I was saying they could be scum, or they could be town, but reguardless we should just let them be for now, because we would be wasting our time with people who aren't playing the game, regardless, and are sitting ducks to be modkilled... That's not scummy or not scummy, its just disinterest in the game, so we can focus elsewhere.

Meego pipes up when I mention her being suspicious. Interesting. There's a lot more to work with in this game, then just Kyby's last 2 posts. My notes show me so. Meego is my strongest lead at this point. When I get a chance I will look at her 8 posts from day 1. And see if anything looks incriminating.

 

[Kybyrian]

The doctor very well could have very well protected me last night. The only people who would then know I was was protected was the doctor his/herself, and any person who may have targeted me with a nightkilling ability. It doesn't appear I was targeted by anyone with a nightkilling ability, though, so why would that be? Perhaps they assume I will be targeted by the doctor, so it will be a waste of a night. That doesn't explain however, why I was roleblocked on night one... If the mafia blocked me on night one, why wouldnt they block me on night two too?

Unless Maiku didn't believe my claim on day 1 and blocked me that night. I still think there's a good chance the Mafia have roleblocker though. It just doesn't make sense why they wouldn't target me, last night.

EBWODP:


I wasn't accusing those people of anything, I hope you realized. Other then being completely inactive during day 2. I was saying they could be scum, or they could be town, but reguardless we should just let them be for now, because we would be wasting our time with people who aren't playing the game, regardless, and are sitting ducks to be modkilled... That's not scummy or not scummy, its just disinterest in the game, so we can focus elsewhere.

Meego pipes up when I mention her being suspicious. Interesting. There's a lot more to work with in this game, then just Kyby's last 2 posts. My notes show me so. Meego is my strongest lead at this point. When I get a chance I will look at her 8 posts from day 1. And see if anything looks incriminating.

I think the norm is that you can't roleblock the same person two nights in a row. That's how it was with the roleblocker back in Mafia Round 2, but I'm not sure how it would go in this game. Every mod runs it differently, I suppose.

As for anything striking me out of the ordinary, Meego's last post seems quite odd. I'd figure she'd be one of the people to be a little more engaged in the conversation. We've had a lot of good leads... it's just trusting the people who are giving them or not.

 

[Baysiderulez]

I think the norm is that you can't roleblock the same person two nights in a row. That's how it was with the roleblocker back in Mafia Round 2, but I'm not sure how it would go in this game. Every mod runs it differently, I suppose.

Game 5 - Role PM's

In raj's game, both 3rd party roleblocker, and mafia roleblocker weren't given that restriction. But that is a valid point, if they can't roleblock the same person 2 nights in a row that would explain why I was able to do my investigation successfully, BUT it doesn't explain then why they didn't target me. Unless, yet again... they believe the doctor has the ability to repetitively protect the same target multiple nights in a row.

Next POI (point of interest). Would Maiku's Roleblock ability be activated on the same night of his death? I wonder about that one. My guess that if he was dead, his ability wouldn't have been able to work (supports my belief in there being a thief in game). Granted its still early on day 3, but if that's true, then its about time for our thief to drop some subtle hints so we have something solid to work with.

 

[Jimmy]

My belief is that given the wording of the Durion Night 2 post, Mikau was able to complete the roleblock before he was killed. So I'd guess that's how it works. The evidence is pretty compelling, just re-read the post on page 26 if you want more on it.

Bay I still wouldn't discount the possibility that you only have a certain percent chance of a successful investigation, but it may be true they roleblocked you. Perhaps you were even the one who was targeted for nightkill last night by the mafia, but fortunately they were roleblocked. It wouldn't make sense for the mafia to roleblock someone they planned to nightkill. Be prepared for the possibility they will target you again tonight. (Town roleblockers/doctor also bear that in mind).

I'm pretty impressed by Ky's response to my vote. If he is scum it's a pretty bold move. I'll keep my vote, but I have a few people I want to look into.

Seeing as Axle was innocent, that smashes that theory of him being guilty. (Obvious theory is obvious)

Now I completely turn my attention to Bay. Seeing as no-one has directly targeted her, or roleblocked her, as said in Durion's little summary paragraph, I can assume that she could be a possible role blocker, or in fact scum, who is watching and waiting for the right moment to strike and take down those who she sees as the biggest threat to her metaphorical organisation.

For now;

IGMEOY: Baysiderulez

Complete logic fail. It's unlikely this could be some sort of scummy gambit to take out Bay, as if the mafia were making such a gambit it would be thought out thoroughly. Maybe he's counting on us thinking this and it's a bluff, but I doubt it. This makes me think ark is probably a townie.