Game Thread Cryptid Mafia

[The Sun Fan]

what rag is proposing is the same thing that just occurred to me in the shower; I'm not really sure if that means that no-killing is optimal for no one, but it might? I never play with the mechanic where either town can no-lynch two days in a row, or mafia can no-kill two nights in a row, so its new territory for me to see this play out this way, but I /think/ rag is right that no-killing was a slight inaccuracy for the last mafia member last night

it... is also exceptionally lame for me to check kirino tonight, then rag the night after, and then minish the night after that, all while killing no one in the day. I think that's really, really, really, really stupid, it should be obvious why it is my opinion. I would prefer not to do this, and would instead prefer to play """honorably"""""""""""""""""""""

 

[The Sun Fan]

@The Sun Fan do you think FG no kills here?

I'm not really ruling it out for anyone, it seems like the kind of thing that anyone could do, I think FG is marginally more likely than some other people to not realize that no-killing invites the world that rag has proposed about no-killing and me checking everyone (an important part of this also involves kirino tracking everyone, he could also confirm me as the cop at some point as well, or, at least, as a role that can target people)

 

[Ragnarokio]

it... is also exceptionally lame for me to check kirino tonight, then rag the night after, and then minish the night after that, all while killing no one in the day. I think that's really, really, really, really stupid, it should be obvious why it is my opinion. I would prefer not to do this, and would instead prefer to play """honorably"""""""""""""""""""""

no hitting is as dishonerable as no-lynching probably. Town is eventually going to break the stalemate so that makes them more honorable than mafia in this position probably.

I can respect that people don't want to be trapped in a game thats going nowhere for weeks though, and so I'm willing to lynch someone today if thats what enough people want. Kirino is probably my first choice.

 

[The Sun Fan]

you guys never expedite night phases, right?
we'd be spending somewhere around 72ish hours to either
end up exactly where we started
or in a really lame way, essentially force the last mafia to kill me or give up

I fully admit that this is the optimal play but I don't care about winning this silly internet word game enough to spend what would be like 40% of the time that the thread was up for play just to win by mechanics; ZD setups are already hard enough for the mafia

 

[Ragnarokio]

no-killing in this position is a standard scum tactic in some metas probably simply because it moves us from lynching from a pool of 5 and 3 to lynching from a pool from 6 and 4 which is obviously a lot safer for mafia. In this context specifically it also has the benefit of preventing kirino from clearing someone

it probably more than doubles the mafia's chance of winning though i haven't done the math

 

[The Sun Fan]

I don't have Kirino as my top choice, I have FG as my top choice in spite of my green check on her

I think Kirino tracking rubik to Minish n1 looks pretty good for him, yes he could've pieced it together but I don't really think that's likely given he appears to be devoting 1% of his free time to the game

 

[The Sun Fan]

no-killing in this position is a standard scum tactic in some metas probably simply because it moves us from lynching from a pool of 5 and 3 to lynching from a pool from 6 and 4 which is obviously a lot safer for mafia. In this context specifically it also has the benefit of preventing kirino from clearing someone

it probably more than doubles the mafia's chance of winning though i haven't done the math

if the last mafia is not the godfather, I could've just won the game last night

 

[Ragnarokio]

if the last mafia is not the godfather, I could've just won the game last night

or a tailor (though in that case kirino could have won the game last night, although since he said he was targeting FG the mafia may have felt safe in tailoring themselves instead of hitting)

also if the last mafia is you then it was safe

if it was SMS or me they would have also felt safe probably

if it was anybody else they may have simply evaluated that it was worth the risk.

 

[The Sun Fan]

I disagree that mafia no-killing last night was dishonorable for them, but I am having a "pick your battles" moment about it
I'd rather kill FG today as compared to Kirino because I'm no-braining it and believing Kirino's claim

I think the last two mafia always, always lie within FG and Kirino so I don't really care a ton if we vote Kirino first (SMS convinced me with his post, I would like Minish's input on that post as well but I do think I believe it from SMS)

I don't really think its Rag because she's trying really hard

 

[The Sun Fan]

I didn't even talk about Minish, which I'm now realizing
lol its not ever, ever Minish for the n1 stuff

I don't think we need this plan anyways where we no lynch and I keep checking

I'll check randomly between kirino and rag tonight if it somehow matters (if we kill kirino I will check randomly between Minish and rag I guess...?)

I don't really think we need to devote too much more brainpower to this game in order to win it

 

[Morbid Minish]

I don't think it's SMS. Partially because I'm pretty sure he kills me or you by now. The n1 hit on me looks not great for him because I know he would be likely to target me right away especially since I had suspicion on him d1. But I think SMS kills last night. He doesn't go for the 2 steps ahead plan. He goes for what seems easiest like he said. I'm not positive on this, but I think it's Kirino or FG over him.


Also I don't think there's a tailor. They would've just framed one of sunfan's checks by now I feel to get a kill on them. Or they would've made Storm innocent to try to buy a bit more time. I think Godfather is maybe more likely.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I don't think it's SMS. Partially because I'm pretty sure he kills me or you by now. The n1 hit on me looks not great for him because I know he would be likely to target me right away especially since I had suspicion on him d1. But I think SMS kills last night. He doesn't go for the 2 steps ahead plan. He goes for what seems easiest like he said. I'm not positive on this, but I think it's Kirino or FG over him.


Also I don't think there's a tailor. They would've just framed one of sunfan's checks by now I feel to get a kill on them. Or they would've made Storm innocent to try to buy a bit more time. I think Godfather is maybe more likely.

sunfan hasn't revealed his targets so they couldn't have just chosen to frame one of his checks.

 

[Ragnarokio]

or rather he wasn't revealing his targets ahead of time

 

[Ragnarokio]

i would guess there's a decent probability of it lying within FG and kirino.

mafia leading the kill basically gives us an extra target and for me i'd try for FG/kirino/SMS

i'm not comfortable clearing SMS on what seem like shaky meta arguments to me, although they're probably enough to warrant lynching other people ahead of him.

I'm paranoid of sunfan as always but i still think it would be very strange for him to pull this gambit and so i'm town-reading him pretty hard anyways.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I don't think we need this plan anyways where we no lynch and I keep checking

I'll check randomly between kirino and rag tonight if it somehow matters (if we kill kirino I will check randomly between Minish and rag I guess...?)

I don't really think we need to devote too much more brainpower to this game in order to win it

the usage of the word "need" here is strange to me. I'd estimate our odds of winning without the plan at around 70% and with it perhaps up to 90%. Does that mean we need it to win?