Game Thread Cryptid Mafia

[Morbid Minish]

zinger is blueballing us hard

Guess there will be no cum hammering today.

 

[Zinger2099]

Alright. So, first of all, I know Sun Fan asked me to full claim. I will not be doing that, because as I've explained abundantly before, I prefer to stay under the umbrella of my NLP, and since this is an open setup any full claim becomes an alignment claim which null-and-voids it (ie. I can't claim Town Doctor, for example, because there is no chance of a Mafia Doctor, so any claim of Doctor is also a claim of Town, which then falls into my NLP grey area).

What I can and will do is help y'all narrow the possibilities down to the smallest possible integers, while still remaining NAI.

I have one of these two roles:

• Town Doctor
• Mafia Goon

Having said that, you'd have to assume that if I am the Town Doctor, I obviously tried to protect Mido Night 1 and failed, OR if I am the Mafia Goon, then I obviously submitted the faction kill on someone and that failed. Both of these are possible, and I can't claim which is true without violating the spirit of my NLP, so you'll just have to decide for yourselves on that.

Keeping in mind the presence of the SK and only one kill Night 1, Occam's razor would seem to suggest that I am the Mafia Goon. I don't really have any defense against that argument because I don't know why there was only one kill Night 1, except that Occam's razor is often right but not always right and there are a number of reasons why only one kill would go through despite a Doctor failing to protect his target.

What do we do with this information? How does this result in a solved game?

Well, one course of action is to Lynch Rag, while SunFan confirms one of Storm, Minish, Kirino, or FG, ignoring me under the assumption I will die. Assuming I die in the Night, SunFan comes forward with his results, and then the game is fully solved and we win. This seems unlikely because it assumes Scum will play into our hands.

If I don't die because Mafia chooses not to hit me (presumably they hit a confirmed town instead that isn't SunFan because they expect him to be protected), then I guess you have to decide if you believe I'm the Doc or the Goon and we're in LyLo, but SunFan is now confirmed Town Cop and has either pegged scum or confirmed another Townie, so net positive. And the odds are strong that SunFan hits scum! Playing outguess the scum team here, this scenario is more likely than the first because they have to hit a confirmed townie in order to have any chance of surviving LyLo, which I am not. Knowing this, SunFan could theoretically target me toNight to green check me? But then, if the scum team know we're going to do that, then they'll consider me a confirmed town anyway and move their hit back on to me. Where is the iocaine powder in this scenario? Both wine glasses, probably.

I believe the correct course of action is for us to lynch Rag and for SunFan to confirm one of Myself, Storm, Minish, Kirino, or FG, without telling us who beforehand. That probably results in a fully solved game by tomorrow, regardless of what the Scum team does.

 

[Morbid Minish]

Why would you as possible town doctor protect Mido?

 

[Ragnarokio]

if i'm lynched today and another green player is killed tonight (say, SMS), and then tomorrow sunfan publically confirms a currently yellow player (say, you), then we'll have 3 confirmed town players (you, rubik, sunfan) and 4 unconfirmed players, which isn't solved.

 

[Zinger2099]

Why would you as possible town doctor protect Mido?

Mido was the second leading wagon after Giri.

In my experience, second-leading wagons are a "safe hit" for Mafia and SK players who want to fakeclaim Vig down the road. It would seem I was correct, given Mido was hit...

 

[Ragnarokio]

also your claim still doesn't explain where the kill went night 1.

@Rubik
@Spiritual Mask Salesman
@Kirino
@Funnygurl555

I'd like all of you to claim.

 

[Ragnarokio]

If you were a doctor who was your target on night 2, Zinger?

 

[Ragnarokio]

Town
SMS - Vanilla(?)
Ragnarokio - 1-Shot cop, No target N1, Sunfan N2 (green)
Rubik - ???
Sunfan - Cop (Rubik N1 (green), SMS N2 (green))

Unknown
Storm - Roleblocker (Rag N1, ??? N2)
Minish - Vanilla
Kirino - ???
FG - ???
Zinger - Doctor (Mido N1 (Roleblocked), ??? N2)

@Storm who did you target N2?

 

[Storm]

@Storm who did you target N2?

Its not gonna help my case, but I roleblocked Moe. Thought that was a safe bet because hes was acting iffy. Had no idea hed turn up Vanilla. Still feel we should give you one more day to prove your innocence. Roleblock you once more, and if theres a kill, we'll know its you

 

[Rubik]

also your claim still doesn't explain where the kill went night 1.

@Rubik
@Spiritual Mask Salesman
@Kirino
@Funnygurl555

I'd like all of you to claim.

I'll claim last if we do a full claim because I was green checked.

I still don't think a full claim is the ideal move here, but whatever.

 

[Morbid Minish]

Mido was the second leading wagon after Giri.

In my experience, second-leading wagons are a "safe hit" for Mafia and SK players who want to fakeclaim Vig down the road. It would seem I was correct, given Mido was hit...

I don't think second wagons are really safe mafia hits. Considering leaving them can just keep more suspicion off of them, since people like to revisit the one that wasn't lynched.

 

[Zinger2099]

I did not target anyone Night 2. I kept flip-flopping on who to target, going back and forth between several names until the deadline came and passed, and still I hadn't submitted a target.

 

[Rubik]

Oh, I missed zinger's claim somehow. I guess a full claim might be good, then, though I'd still like to go last.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I'll claim last if we do a full claim because I was green checked.

I still don't think a full claim is the ideal move here, but whatever.

I thought it over and i'd be very surprised if it wasn't the ideal move. It gives us either an extra confirmed town or an extra confirmed scum going into tomorrow both of which should raise the town's lynch rate to 100% unless godfather/tailor come into play. I could have done the math wrong but i don't think i did.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I don't think second wagons are really safe mafia hits. Considering leaving them can just keep more suspicion off of them, since people like to revisit the one that wasn't lynched.

if you want to try and have one of the mafia fakeclaim vig down the line then hitting mido makes sense. I've never seen such a play executed though, as far as i can recall.