Game Thread Cryptid Mafia

[Rubik]

we have several vanilla towns
like at least 3

Are you saying vanillas shouldn't claim either?

 

[Ragnarokio]

absolutely
I still don't know what things you liked
is there a way I'm supposed to see this?

they appear in my alerts

You know full well that I dislike answering direct AI questions regardless of my alignment because sometimes those questions require me to lie and while my NLP does have provisions for that, it's a grey area I prefer to avoid altogether. You've seen me do this as Town as well as Mafia.

And right now, you're trying to use my NLP to determine my alignment, which I work very hard to make sure that's not something anyone can do, ever. So you can scumread me for it all you want, but all you're doing is complaining that "Zinger didn't give me a direct answer to a question I knew he probably wouldn't give me a direct answer to." Like, you should know better. Are you trying to frame me? What's the deal, here?

I know you do, and i believe that you're not answering because you think it would go against the spirit of your NLP and i don't find that unreasonable. I'm not voting for you because you're refusing to go against the spirit of your NLP. The reason I'm voting for you is because you were willing to go against the spirit of your NLP on one occasion and not another and i think the reason for that could be because of your alignment.

You've given two reasons for the inconsistency, those being "this is the second time this has happened this game" and "moe didn't know better". I don't think you would go against the spirit of your NLP in response to someone's question just because they didn't know better, and so i don't think thats actually why you answered the first question but not the second. Rather, i would guess you just didn't think about whether or not answering the first question went against the spirit of your NLP and it wasn't until you were asked it again that you realized it was abusive.

The question is then: did the second question make you realize it was abusive simply because you had more time to think about it, or was it because in the second case you knew you couldn't answer it without outing yourself as scum (which would be against the spirit of your NLP, as its unfair to your teammates). The conclusion is correct and i believe you'd make the same conclusion regardless of your alignment if you questioned the scenario sufficiently, the only ambiguous point is what would cause you to question the scenario sufficiently. Its clear to me that its possible for you to not question the scenario sufficiently as you answered the question earlier in the game, and so reading your alignment is now a matter of guessing what kinds of scenarios would be likely to cause you to question the scenario and whether or not they would apply to one or both alignments.

 

[The Sun Fan]

Kinda messy but I think Zinger would've killed Moe last night
a team of Zinger + fg + someone is very messy but I don't think I should be ruling it out

 

[Rubik]

Personally, I prefer the play of lynching rag today and fully claiming tomorrow if rag is green.

 

[Morbid Minish]

I just woke up so I'm not entirely sure and have to think on this, but I don't think both Rag and sunfan's claims add up? This is from the perspective I have of me being town though.

After I woke up and saw that eod I immediately thought FG was scum and scum jumped on an easy Cynical Squid wagon to save her.

I think I'm still on board with FG being scum. I originally thought it was just FG/sunfan/Rag or Zinger after the flip but not sure after coming into today.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I just woke up so I'm not entirely sure and have to think on this, but I don't think both Rag and sunfan's claims add up? This is from the perspective I have of me being town though.

After I woke up and saw that eod I immediately thought FG was scum and scum jumped on an easy Cynical Squid wagon to save her.

I think I'm still on board with FG being scum. I originally thought it was just FG/sunfan/Rag or Zinger after the flip but not sure after coming into today.

i think it lowers your PoE to 4

 

[Ragnarokio]

The fact that i wasn't roleblocked probably suggests that the mafia doesn't have access to a roleblocker or that whoever storm targeted last night ended up being the mafia roleblocker. in either case this game is very likely solvable from this position so i support a massclaim. Having protective roles claim vanilla is probably fine but i support a massclaim.

 

[The Sun Fan]

Personally, I prefer the play of lynching rag today and fully claiming tomorrow if rag is green.

talk to me about why rag is scum to you, please

 

[Ragnarokio]

and again despite how close we are to solving we are still in a dangerous position because a 3-4 LyLo is hard to win for town. I think its better to put all our cards on the table today so we can optimize our actions tonight, especially if we plan on lynching me today.

 

[Ragnarokio]

assuming me and sunfan are telling the truth the POE looks like this:

Town
SMS
Ragnarokio
Rubik
Sunfan

Unknown
Storm
Minish
Kirino
FG
Zinger

there are three scum among the unknown group. If at least one of the unknowns dies today/tonight and we get no more mechanical information thentomorrow is 3/4 odds (probably somewhat worse in reality because i don't expect town to play logically.) If we can take one more name off that list somehow then the game is solved.

Confirming me and sun can be accomplished by lynching me, which likely results in another town deaeth overnight and tomorrow looks more like 2 green 5 yellow which is 3/5 odds. If sun lives through the night without being roleblocked then he also gets another investigation though which moves the odds to 3/4 again, which is just as good.

If we have a yellow doctor and they claim and we lynch me tonight, then by the end of tonight we can get 3/4 odds from the scum killing the doctor or 3/4 odds from sun taking another yellow off the list, or alternatively 3/3 odds if both happen. If my reasoning is correct and we have a doctor in the yellow group then them claiming today is probably optimal.

 

[Ragnarokio]

i don't want to go through the possible strategies for every possible role but there are probably some roles or combination of roles where, if they're in the game and are in the right group (green or yellow) then we can guarantee a win by coordinating the lynch and night actions.

if sun is babyface we lose unless we lynch him today probably, but thats probably a really terrible play, and so assuming he's telling the truth is the only real play here. (for me right now and for everyone else if i flip town)

 

[Rubik]

talk to me about why rag is scum to you, please

Rag dying makes you (mostly) set in stone as town instead of making it possible that rag is scum, which makes it possible that you and your results could be untrue.

I suppose since cop and 1x shot were both claimed so both of you have a decently strong claim here. I just hate the uncertainty that leaving rag alive here creates. I'll have to think more on this.

I'm personally against a full claim at the moment, but I'll agree to one if necessary.

 

[Morbid Minish]

Okay hmm, it does add up but just feels too easy.

I'm vanilla. I kinda hinted it a little by fussing at SMS for claiming it for no reason. But otherwise didn't hint because I wanted to make mafia think I might have a power role. Also just my general confusion with this game. Lol.


My reasoning for asking Zinger if he submitted an action d2 was to prevent him from being able to fake claim vanilla later on if he is scum.

If Storm is actually roleblocker, he could be mafia and actually blocked Rag n1, saw their kill didn't go through, and tried to lynch the person he knew was blocked because he blocked them for an easy town lynch.

Which would make the mafia team Storm, Zinger, and either FG/Kirino.

 

[Ragnarokio]

oh right the missing kill means we have another person that could feasibly be moved from the yellow to the green list depending on what could have possibly caused it, which would push the game to solved

 

[Ragnarokio]

if we don't have another disruptive role which could have stopped the kill and i'm lynched today and we only have one protective role then whoever they protected on D1 must be green, and if they're currently yellow then them claiming as much solves the game (twice over even, because it also confirms them)

only exception to this is if the actual reason there was a no kill N1 was because mafia didn't submit it and mafia takes advantage by fake-claiming doc and target and town doesn't have any protective roles