Game Thread Cryptid Mafia

[The Sun Fan]

may I suggest
the openwolf, SMS
or perhaps zinger

honestly at this point, I have too many towns, so the chances that I am ruling out lynching a wolf here are somewhat high, I think
but I don't want to lynch the top poster
and I don't really have a reason to lynch zinger

 

[Morbid Minish]

what is the opportunity i'm pursuing in this case exactly?

because i didn't have anyone that seemed particularly valuable to clear and i felt it would be better to save it for another night

The chance to start any lynch that isn't mafia. Like saying you jump to any growing wagon for pressure gives you an out if that lynch happens to go through.

But why save it for another night when your chances of dying go up each time? With a 1 shot cop any info is good info. Especially since we have a potential mafia tailor. The chances of you both targeting the same person is lower at the beginning. I guess I'm just not seeing the benefit of waiting here (other than the obvious point that if you are telling the truth, you did possibly get blocked but that was an unforseen circumstance).

Minish I think that Rag's claim is convenient, like she said, but we should probably go elsewhere
where you you want to go?

I'm considering it. Though even if we don't vote her today, I don't know when we will unless we can hit a mafia roleblocker. Because otherwise we can't be sure about her.

If not Rag, I was leaning towards FG. Was suspicious of her disappearing, and her catchup post felt a bit fake to me for some reason. Like the reads just didn't feel like they were coming from a genuine place.

 

[Ragnarokio]

The chance to start any lynch that isn't mafia. Like saying you jump to any growing wagon for pressure gives you an out if that lynch happens to go through.

But why save it for another night when your chances of dying go up each time? With a 1 shot cop any info is good info. Especially since we have a potential mafia tailor. The chances of you both targeting the same person is lower at the beginning. I guess I'm just not seeing the benefit of waiting here (other than the obvious point that if you are telling the truth, you did possibly get blocked but that was an unforseen circumstance).

how can it both not create any pressure and be an opportunity for lynching someone? if the latter is true the former must also be true. Regardless of whether you disagree with the strength of the play though, it is something i very consistently do as town. I also find it far-fetched that any scum player would legitimately find it somehow helpful to swap their vote around randomly to top wagons in the hopes that it somehow results in town being lynched. I'm not seeing it as a realistic chain of thought for any player.

the math on it is a function of several variables, the two most important of which are the value of the cop shot and the probability of living to the next night. the longer you wait to use it the more valuable the cop shot becomes (if you use it the night before LyLo it can guarantee a win in some cases) and the longer you wait to use it the more likely it is you'll die before getting it off. This makes the optimal time to use it a function of determining the probability of you dying at any given night and the amount the cop shot contributes to your win-chance.

If getting the cop shot off on night 1 increases your teams win chance by 10% and the odds of you living to night 2 are 90% and getting the cop shot off on night 2 increases your win chance by 15% then the EV in terms of win-chance gain is 10% while using it on N1 and 13.5% on N2, meaning using it on night 2 is better.

In reality its basically impossible to mathematically determine the value of a cop-shot and even harder to determine exactly how much the value of the cop shot changes over time, but there is at least a logical argument to hold a shot if you believe that the value of the shot will go up more than proportionally with the risk of it not going off, which is the case here.

 

[Mikey the Moblin]

wolf rag would never make a post of more than 2 paragraphs

 

[Ragnarokio]

wolf rag would never make a post of more than 2 paragraphs

false

 

[Mikey the Moblin]

false

is this a wolf claim

 

[Morbid Minish]

how can it both not create any pressure and be an opportunity for lynching someone? if the latter is true the former must also be true. Regardless of whether you disagree with the strength of the play though, it is something i very consistently do as town.

I was saying that a vote with no substance behind it isn't going to worry anyone too much, especially if they know said person will just jump to another growing wagon if the chance comes up. But mafia isn't exactly predictable, so you could join a growing wagon and then a few more people hop on not knowing the vote count or whatever and then there's a lynch.

Also, I don't recall you jumping around like that as town all the time, but I could be wrong. My mind equates that more to your scum meta.


As for the cop shot thing, you kinda lose me with math/statistics. I just think that if it's a one shot cop I'd almost always use it n1 or else it's likely to go to waste.

wolf rag would never make a post of more than 2 paragraphs

She absolutely would and has done it.

 

[Ragnarokio]

is this a wolf claim

no i'm town

its strictly true that i've had active and wordy scum games and its probably also strictly true that my current play matches my scum meta more than my town meta on the basis of my activity. when i'm scum i have a harder time becoming engaged in reading people and as a result tend to become less engaged in the game overall, and in this game i haven't been very engaged in reading people.

 

[Funnygurl555]

Seems like an oxymoron to me. In what way is "can you shut up" at all respectful?

yes

 

[Funnygurl555]

idk man rags looking p good on this page

 

[Funnygurl555]

minish i get where you're coming from with sus'ing me but also i'm town

and i think you're still town

and sunfan is town

mikey are you town?

 

[Mikey the Moblin]

mikey are you town?

I'm a 3P scientist, I win the game when I find an egg

 

[Mikey the Moblin]

sunfan has it

 

[Funnygurl555]

mikey is town

 

[Morbid Minish]

Aaaah ****. I feel very much like mafia is trying to pocket me this game and have me kind of like a town leader while also trying to poke me in certain directions away from them.

The fact that Rubik is probably my best town read makes me frustrated. I already feel like this game is a lost cause for town.