kokirion
Just like you. But cooler
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2010
- Location
- Wherever history is in the making
Alright.
I have been a tad silent yesterday and this morning. Mostly due to the 24 hour deadlines. If you go to the dentist once you practically lost the day. But I haven't been sitting still, and I've been thinking a lot. Let me present my thoughts.
Mido's death did not give us another dead mafia member, but it did make the rest of the game a bit more straightforward. Either We know for sure that either Deku, Jamie or Libk is scum.
In Pendio's last post he warned of the possibility that Jamie secretly does is scum, but I am not betting on that. Jamie is playing as town as he can play town. Yes, you never know for sure until the roles are revealed, but if Jamie is scum in this game, his game has been so elaborate and fantastic that I will nominate him right away for best mafia member of the year. I just don't believe in it. In every game we have to take a risk, and I am willing to rule Jamie out as possible scum in his neighbourhood. I trust him.
Leaving Libk and Dekunut.
I have already said a lot on day one about Libk. On day 2 I was a bit more silent about him (and about anyone else). I was watching from the sidelines, seeing how the people moved. To be honest, there were some good points made against Mido. I was never completely sold that he was scum, but I didn't think he was town either. I saw multiple conflicting scenarios, multiple possible scum teams. I was fine with a Mido lynch because either he was scum or he would now exclude one of these possibilities.
I have never truly been staring myself blind on Libk, though. I was genuinely suspicious about him on day 1. I will come back on this (with quotes) later, but yesterday and this morning I have entertained myself with other options as well, such as a possible Mido or Deku culprit.
Dekunut certainly fits some of the descriptions of what I would expect from scum: slightly inactive, but not inactive enough to truly be a part of the inactives.
Basically that. Many see Deku now as the main suspect, understandably, and I think he is scummy too, but this is rather due to ruling out other people than an actual case.
This morning I have mainly been thinking about 2 things regarding Dekunut:
- why did Storm die on day 1?
- was his mistake to reply to Pendio this morning genuine or a clever scum tactic?
To discuss the first. It might seem a strange question, but Dekunut and Storm know each other very well, outside the forum even. I have been in a mafia team with them in a far away game, having learned that they know each other in real life. There was time between everyone receiving their roles and the start of the game. If they are teammates I would find it hard to believe that they would never talk about the game. Storm made a vital mistake by opposing to reveal the neighbourhoods. If they were a team, why didn't Deku stop him? Why didn't Deku try to influence Storm in such a way that he would survive day 1? Let's face it. IF Deku has truly made that Pendio-mistake on purpose, then he is a damn good strategist. Wouldn't he then also have been clever enough to notice Storm was heading towards a cliff, and to then have act on that?
The second point. Deku's Pendio-mistake. The question I asked myself here was whether Deku was capable of coming up with this or that it would be in line with a busy warry Deku.
This is more difficult to tell. But I do feel like it is not suuuuper unusual for him to make such a mistake. When he is a townie I feel like he more often drifts off a little bit. Usually coming back later at some point but mwah..... I could "imagine" he did it by mistake. I've never really seen him make such a mistake on purpose, to fool others, though. That does not mean he cannot do it, I just have not seen him doing that before, but it does make it "posssssible" that it was a genuine mistake. If I phrase it differently, there would be plenty of other players in the game that I would not buy it from if it happened to them, but for Dekunut I could see it being a mistake.
Anyway, basically that led me to the following conclusion about Dekunut: if he is scum, and so if this mistake was genuine, it shows terrific play. And knowing his personal connection with Storm, I cannot imagine that he could not have prevented Storm's day 1 play. If he is not scum, that both does make sense.
So I did think about this when actually attempting to read him other than to conclude that he must be scum because Libk seems less scummy and his activity might be scum-like.
These 2 things do not clear him, but they do make me look at Libk again.
I have been a tad silent yesterday and this morning. Mostly due to the 24 hour deadlines. If you go to the dentist once you practically lost the day. But I haven't been sitting still, and I've been thinking a lot. Let me present my thoughts.
Mido's death did not give us another dead mafia member, but it did make the rest of the game a bit more straightforward. Either We know for sure that either Deku, Jamie or Libk is scum.
In Pendio's last post he warned of the possibility that Jamie secretly does is scum, but I am not betting on that. Jamie is playing as town as he can play town. Yes, you never know for sure until the roles are revealed, but if Jamie is scum in this game, his game has been so elaborate and fantastic that I will nominate him right away for best mafia member of the year. I just don't believe in it. In every game we have to take a risk, and I am willing to rule Jamie out as possible scum in his neighbourhood. I trust him.
Leaving Libk and Dekunut.
I have already said a lot on day one about Libk. On day 2 I was a bit more silent about him (and about anyone else). I was watching from the sidelines, seeing how the people moved. To be honest, there were some good points made against Mido. I was never completely sold that he was scum, but I didn't think he was town either. I saw multiple conflicting scenarios, multiple possible scum teams. I was fine with a Mido lynch because either he was scum or he would now exclude one of these possibilities.
I have never truly been staring myself blind on Libk, though. I was genuinely suspicious about him on day 1. I will come back on this (with quotes) later, but yesterday and this morning I have entertained myself with other options as well, such as a possible Mido or Deku culprit.
Dekunut certainly fits some of the descriptions of what I would expect from scum: slightly inactive, but not inactive enough to truly be a part of the inactives.
Basically that. Many see Deku now as the main suspect, understandably, and I think he is scummy too, but this is rather due to ruling out other people than an actual case.
This morning I have mainly been thinking about 2 things regarding Dekunut:
- why did Storm die on day 1?
- was his mistake to reply to Pendio this morning genuine or a clever scum tactic?
To discuss the first. It might seem a strange question, but Dekunut and Storm know each other very well, outside the forum even. I have been in a mafia team with them in a far away game, having learned that they know each other in real life. There was time between everyone receiving their roles and the start of the game. If they are teammates I would find it hard to believe that they would never talk about the game. Storm made a vital mistake by opposing to reveal the neighbourhoods. If they were a team, why didn't Deku stop him? Why didn't Deku try to influence Storm in such a way that he would survive day 1? Let's face it. IF Deku has truly made that Pendio-mistake on purpose, then he is a damn good strategist. Wouldn't he then also have been clever enough to notice Storm was heading towards a cliff, and to then have act on that?
The second point. Deku's Pendio-mistake. The question I asked myself here was whether Deku was capable of coming up with this or that it would be in line with a busy warry Deku.
This is more difficult to tell. But I do feel like it is not suuuuper unusual for him to make such a mistake. When he is a townie I feel like he more often drifts off a little bit. Usually coming back later at some point but mwah..... I could "imagine" he did it by mistake. I've never really seen him make such a mistake on purpose, to fool others, though. That does not mean he cannot do it, I just have not seen him doing that before, but it does make it "posssssible" that it was a genuine mistake. If I phrase it differently, there would be plenty of other players in the game that I would not buy it from if it happened to them, but for Dekunut I could see it being a mistake.
Anyway, basically that led me to the following conclusion about Dekunut: if he is scum, and so if this mistake was genuine, it shows terrific play. And knowing his personal connection with Storm, I cannot imagine that he could not have prevented Storm's day 1 play. If he is not scum, that both does make sense.
So I did think about this when actually attempting to read him other than to conclude that he must be scum because Libk seems less scummy and his activity might be scum-like.
These 2 things do not clear him, but they do make me look at Libk again.