I don't like this post, it's kind of confusing in its wording. A town player would have just said "I'm town."
I don't know if I'm town, but there's like an 80+ percent chance of it unless the setup is strange, probably.
Guessing scum d1 is the best move, in theory, because it's moderately likely to be true, guessing correctly informs you of your team, and it ensures there's someone able to deliver a nk (unless that's a role thing rather than a factional thing).
Guessing town is the most likely to be correct, but knowing that you're not scum means you know you're probably against scum. Very little of the advantage of guessing town is lost by guessing scum, while guessing scum when you're scum has massive benefits.