Game Thread DW's Very Creatively Titled Mafia

[HangryHangryHippo]

I finally quit being lazy and broke down the voting progression yesterday. Nothing really screams Ex can't be town from it. It was a pendulum swing between KJ and Ex. DC's vote for Lain is literally the only vote cast the entire day that was outside of these two.

The things I took especial note of are that KJ quickly amassed three votes within an hour shortly after the 24 hour mark into day. This was started by Lain and quickly followed up by Ex and storm. Rag literally stopped catching up in order to speak out about this quick build. Us knowing KJ's alignment now is why this makes Rag look really really bad. Lain and Storm are the only two players to jump from KJ to Ex. Both did so shortly after Rag finished catching up and voted Ex herself, which was like 15 minutes after she felt the need to stop to address the KJ wagon. OG piled on a fourth the next morning and Min brought things back around to KJ, but was only the third vote at this point. Jamie brought it to a tie and Mint put KJ to the lead. Storm hammered shortly after.

Votes that could qualify as bussing in my opinion are Lain's original KJ vote and Minish's mid wagon, both because you could argue they were made at a time when the wagon going over isn't necessitated by their respective votes. Storm is never scum here. Ex and I don't make sense here in terms of sacrificing KJ's utility for a red checked Ex. Mint don't make sense bussing here with a basic free pass to vote red checked Ex.

Looking at the progression from an "Ex IS town Miller" standpoint, it's not impossible to see a mafia progression to save KJ. Rag makes a big scene. Scum!Lain or Scum!OG follow suit. Possibly Scum!DC is nadar voting before having to drop. Possibly Scum!Minish busses KJ after the Ex wagon retakes the lead. Rag green checking is the only detractor here, but scum!lain (presuming copying KJ is possible) or scum!DC/lissi could subvert the check as well as Rag just being godfather.

The thing that doesn't make sense looking at this progression and now knowing KJ's alignment is the notion that Ex is scum. As said before, Ex bussing KJ there is a horrible trade off with what we currently know. You can't say it was essential to appear self pres'ing because DC's Lain vote was present before Lain's KJ vote, giving Ex the opportunity to wagon there for self pres before KJ is even on the board. The much simpler solution is that Ex is miller as claimed. This puts him in a position of maybe needing to by lynched as a last resort before we hit Mylo/LyLo. We are not in last resort territory therefore Ex is not a priority lynch today.

 

[ExLight]

The more being a loud visitor leads one to conclude that the visitor is town (which all bulbagarden players seemed to conclude) the stronger the role is on mafia, because it acts as a pseudo-IC, which is obviously very good as mafia.

Mafia needs tools to actively counter Town's roles and coordination, I don't really see how a Loud Visitor does that?
It's seen as towny for a reason, it being that it's not something that benefits scum the slightest, so it has no reason being a scum role.

 

[ExLight]

I want to hunt scum with everyone :(
I didn't even have the time to do the wagonomics of D2 because of all my college homework

 

[Ragnarokio]

For your two mafia teams tinfoil you'd have to account for three missing kills.

opposite odd and even modifiers on their faction kills would be the most obvious approach

Mafia needs tools to actively counter Town's roles and coordination, I don't really see how a Loud Visitor does that?
It's seen as towny for a reason, it being that it's not something that benefits scum the slightest, so it has no reason being a scum role.

if its seen as towny it benefits scum because scum benefits from being seen as towny

 

[HangryHangryHippo]

opposite odd and even modifiers on their faction kills would be the most obvious approach

Not really. You're disadvantaging the mafia team that doesn't get the initial start. There's no balance between the teams there, that only balances both against the town. You're stretching pretty far just to make it seem like Ex has to be mafia instead of a miller like he claimed to be. This isn't solving the game, this is trying to shoe horn things into the image you want the game to have. And that is very scummy indeed.

 

[Ragnarokio]

Mafia game are often not balanced. Both teams have a lower chance of winning in this setup than a 3-person mafia would in a traditional setup, and they might not be balanced against each other but differences in role power could work to offset the kill headstart one team gets

its me considering a variety of angles while i am still able to do so. I don't really care if you're scumreading me and I don't have any basis to defend myself aside from the green check making me statistically more likely to be town. Its true that i aggressively pushed against a scum wagon and objectively thats highly indicative here (although the red and green check both are as well).

I'm speaking genuinely and while i can appreciate that isn't a known factor right now i will ask that people consider the ideas i present seriously, especially if/when i die and flip town.

 

[lain]

With the exception of OG we have the same people vehemently pushing for EXlight just because of the check. It doesn’t even seem like they are trying to look at more options.

i mean, i was looking at you and minish. rag was looking at lissi. lissi/dc's votes have kind of been all over the place.

Looking at the progression from an "Ex IS town Miller" standpoint, it's not impossible to see a mafia progression to save KJ. Rag makes a big scene. Scum!Lain or Scum!OG follow suit. Possibly Scum!DC is nadar voting before having to drop. Possibly Scum!Minish busses KJ after the Ex wagon retakes the lead. Rag green checking is the only detractor here, but scum!lain (presuming copying KJ is possible) or scum!DC/lissi could subvert the check as well as Rag just being godfather.

this is a pretty cool theory. i would have had to copy KJ N1 for it to work and i think the wagon on them only really started D2, by me, although other people were also pushing for them iirc. but if i was mafia and knew their ability was very strong i guess it's possible i still might have? although if i actually was mafia i think it would be a better play to wait until i was more sure someone would die, either because we would kill them that night or because people have been pushing them and it could be an easy lynch. Anyway, unless we had decided at N1 to bus killjoy I don't think i would have copied them N1 and i have no idea why we would be planning to lynch one of the other scum right after the game started. especially since KJ is strong. hmm. If i actually was scum, I think I would have copied DC/lissi night 2 and then tried to lynch them today, assuming they weren't also mafia.

the reason why i switched my vote over is because my vote on killjoy was originally just to pressure them, i didn't feel that my case was actually very strong, & i had misunderstood how ex's ability worked, i thought it would prove they were town, which is why i moved my vote over so quickly once i learned that it wouldn't. if i had known that from the beginning i probably would have voted ex instead of kj originally.

Votes that could qualify as bussing in my opinion are Lain's original KJ vote and Minish's mid wagon, both because you could argue they were made at a time when the wagon going over isn't necessitated by their respective votes. Storm is never scum here. Ex and I don't make sense here in terms of sacrificing KJ's utility for a red checked Ex. Mint don't make sense bussing here with a basic free pass to vote red checked Ex.

maybe ex is also very strong and is lying about just being a loud visitor. maybe if scum knew KJ being lynched would give people a reason to disbelieve that ex and whoever else is mafia there would have been more utility to lynch them. i'm not convinced ex is mafia, and your argument makes me less sure, but rn i still think that voting them is a good option and that the other options are worse. voting DC/lissi feels like a complete guess to me, it's hard for me to read DC but i was leaning town on them. lissi so far doesn't seem scummy to me. the suspicion on her seems just based on DC claiming to have mistaken what their ability was and changing what they said about it, which could have easily been a legit mistake since this was their first game. I would rather vote minish or mint elv. rag i'm less sure of. her argument to vote ex seems reasonable to me and like things a town player might come up with. if i was mafia in her position i might have backed off on pushing ex after i saw it was making people suspicious of me, but the damage could have been done at that point. although, if rag is mafia and knows ex is town, rag would be the obvious lynch if ex is lynched and turns out to be town. it would be better for her to push someone else if she were mafia today, i think? which makes me think she may be town.

if lissi and ex are both town and rag is scum i think it would be better for rag to lynch lissi today and leave ex alive. if both lissi and rag are scum i guess it could make sense for rag to continue pushing for ex even if it would make people suspicious of her cause those are the only three wagons rn. hm. so rag being mafia only makes sense to me if lissi is also mafia. i read back, and i don't think either of DC/lissi's ability claims could have redirected the cop check on rag. although i could be wrong ig. that whole thing was kind of confusing to me.

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ex has been focused on defending themselves rather than solving, has played passively, and is a red check. but was one of the first votes on KJ who flipped scum.

rag has strongly pushed ex, which i think makes sense to me from a town perspective, seems focused on solving, and is a green check. i think it only makes sense for her to be scum if DC/lissi also is.

DC I'm not confident I can read the behavior of and there hasn't really been enough time yet for me to read lissi. DC claimed to have an ability, then changed what they were claiming. people claimed that their original ability made them look scummier i think (?). i'm not sure i'm remembering correctly though. DC voted me D2 (not KJ) and lissi is voting ex today.

out of the 3, i'm still the most confident about ex, although you bring up some good arguments.

 

[lain]

to add, rag and ex are the most suspicious to me out of those 3. probably only one of them will be scum. ex’s passive behavior, lack of trying to solve, and the red check makes me err on the side of ex being scum. rag’s push for ex makes sense as scum, but it also makes sense as town. for rag to make sense as scum she needs to be a godfather and lissi also needs to be scum. ex makes sense as scum without anything else needing to be true, and for them to make sense as town they need to be a miller. and ex’s behavior, to me, makes less sense as town than rag’s does.

 

[HangryHangryHippo]

@Ragnarokio I don't think I've seen you once consider the angle where the checks aren't infallible. Which goes back to what I said before about you not trying to solve but rather trying to make the premises meet your already drawn conclusion.

@lain why do you feel like lissi's literal 2 votes the entire game are "all over the place"?

 

[Morbid Minish]

I finally quit being lazy and broke down the voting progression yesterday. Nothing really screams Ex can't be town from it. It was a pendulum swing between KJ and Ex. DC's vote for Lain is literally the only vote cast the entire day that was outside of these two.

The things I took especial note of are that KJ quickly amassed three votes within an hour shortly after the 24 hour mark into day. This was started by Lain and quickly followed up by Ex and storm. Rag literally stopped catching up in order to speak out about this quick build. Us knowing KJ's alignment now is why this makes Rag look really really bad. Lain and Storm are the only two players to jump from KJ to Ex. Both did so shortly after Rag finished catching up and voted Ex herself, which was like 15 minutes after she felt the need to stop to address the KJ wagon. OG piled on a fourth the next morning and Min brought things back around to KJ, but was only the third vote at this point. Jamie brought it to a tie and Mint put KJ to the lead. Storm hammered shortly after.

Votes that could qualify as bussing in my opinion are Lain's original KJ vote and Minish's mid wagon, both because you could argue they were made at a time when the wagon going over isn't necessitated by their respective votes. Storm is never scum here. Ex and I don't make sense here in terms of sacrificing KJ's utility for a red checked Ex. Mint don't make sense bussing here with a basic free pass to vote red checked Ex.

Looking at the progression from an "Ex IS town Miller" standpoint, it's not impossible to see a mafia progression to save KJ. Rag makes a big scene. Scum!Lain or Scum!OG follow suit. Possibly Scum!DC is nadar voting before having to drop. Possibly Scum!Minish busses KJ after the Ex wagon retakes the lead. Rag green checking is the only detractor here, but scum!lain (presuming copying KJ is possible) or scum!DC/lissi could subvert the check as well as Rag just being godfather.

The thing that doesn't make sense looking at this progression and now knowing KJ's alignment is the notion that Ex is scum. As said before, Ex bussing KJ there is a horrible trade off with what we currently know. You can't say it was essential to appear self pres'ing because DC's Lain vote was present before Lain's KJ vote, giving Ex the opportunity to wagon there for self pres before KJ is even on the board. The much simpler solution is that Ex is miller as claimed. This puts him in a position of maybe needing to by lynched as a last resort before we hit Mylo/LyLo. We are not in last resort territory therefore Ex is not a priority lynch today.

This is a solid post. Though one point I do disagree with is Mint bussing not making sense there. I'm not scum reading her but in a world where KJ and Ex are scum and Mint is scum with them I feel like she saves Ex there because she's been scum with him and knows he's a strong asset. Plus they have the uncountered miller claim from Ex which can buy him more time. And I feel like Ex would just beg her to save him in scumchat. Lmao.

I most likely would bus there if I were scum. I feel like my claim proves I'm pretty town though. Haven't fully claimed yet but might as well since it's not very secret, but I'm commuter. That explains why Ex's ability failed when he visited me n1. If I'm not a commuter then you have to assume the scum team is exactly Me, Ex, and Mint which doesn't work cause KJ already flipped. Cause in that case Ex would be lying about being loud visitor and visiting me but it failing, and Mint would be covering for Ex's fakeclaim.

Part of the reason I bring up my role though is because Darth's claimed role involved ascetic (or maybe I'm mixing up his original and walked back claims) and that's basically commuter as well. So why would town have 2 commuter type roles? When ascetic is usually more scum oriented.

 

[Ragnarokio]

@Ragnarokio I don't think I've seen you once consider the angle where the checks aren't infallible.

The worst case scenario for town here is if the d2 wagons were town-mafia, and this is the scenario i've probably spent the most time thinking about and possibly talking about. As i've been saying, I think this wagon primarily makes sense in the case that there are two mafia teams, and so in the event that ex does flip town that is the angle i would be most concerned with.

 

[lain]

@lain why do you feel like lissi's literal 2 votes the entire game are "all over the place"?

well ok i guess wording it that way doesn't make much sense looking back on it. DC was suspicious of jamie because jamie listed them as scum-leaning, then switched to me for unclear reasons, maybe because i had asked their role in neighbor chat? then lissi swapped in and voted ex today. i guess it's more of a vibe that they had been voting or suspicious of people on a whim & changing their suspicions on a whim. uh. either way i said that in response to the claim that "with the exception of OG we have the same people vehemently pushing for EXlight" and "not even trying to look at more options". so i think my point still stands. DC didn't even vote for ex N2, they had voted for me.

 

[ExLight]

ex has been focused on defending themselves rather than solving, has played passively

I been busy with college stuff sorry

 

[Morbid Minish]

Vote: Rag

My preferred outcome for today is either rag is lynched and Lissi gladiators Ex for tomorrow, or the three wagons tie and its just randed between them.

 

[Morbid Minish]

If somehow, by some miracle all three of those are town then I think the rest of the scum team is HHH/Mint. Just because they're the two I could most see going deep wolf here and letting town self devour.