Game Thread MS Paint Mafia U-Pick Edition [Day 5]

[OGSniper]

And I go to bed soon. So I hope for the best.

 

[KingofDominaria]

idk what I'm looking at, but it reminds me of a poor party.

 

[OGSniper]

it's still quite early in the day, i'd be surprised if anyone actually tried to hammer early unless they were mafia looking to close out the game on day 2 which i find fairly unlikely.

if i had to guess the setup is something like 2.5 mafia to 8.5 town, with 2 'real' mafia and the .5 being some number of self aligned or defector-type roles (although i'm not sure whether rag would include that kind of role). with 2 town deaths that brings us to at worst (rounding up) 3 mafia to 6 town at the moment, which (probably) isn't in 'close out' range for an open wolf play like that, and is an even worse prospect if it's 2 mafia to 7 town (which is what i believe to be the case).

as for that second part, i'd be very surprised if a single death could lock either faction out of winning.

I got more info and shared it in this post down below.

So I was wrong (again unfortunately) and it seems like both Town and Mafia can win but Mafia currently has a better chance at one option and Town has more chances but with them being at a lower percent of succeeding if I die. I dont think if I am night killed or day killed affects anything.

All of that plus I have a disease. If something goes down then I will give town more info.

 

[OGSniper]

Okay, off to bed I go. I will see the damage tomorrow.

 

[ExLight]

What giant ball? I got hit with a death star. Was that you? Because if so, then you're going to have hell to pay. I assure you of that much.

oops
someone threw it at me but apparently I had a baseball bat so I could hit it towards someone else and u were the one that came to mind my beloved

 

[ExLight]

Unvote

he's bluffing and I have mechanical info about it

 

[ExLight]

oops
someone threw it at me but apparently I had a baseball bat so I could hit it towards someone else and u were the one that came to mind my beloved

in my defense I didn't know what it was so it could've been something good

 

[lain]

he's bluffing and I have mechanical info about it

what info?

 

[ExLight]

what info?

I'd rather not reveal too much, specially considering there are some pieces that are unknown to me that could lead to misunderstandings
but I can affirm with conviction that lynching him does not damage town in the way he's fearmongering us

 

[lain]

i will also just post what i have been writing so far.

this is a lot of text to try to understand and most of it seems like arguments about really minor things? not that im trying to defend ogs necessarily, i'm just having trouble understanding this whole conversation. there's like 5 different arguments going on at a time and the replies aren't in order.

i get that them trying to defend themselves by just arguing over each individual thing seems bad. and the walking it back does too to me a bit. it makes them seem primarily concerned over whether people view them as scummy. but people seem really aggressive even before that. idk. if i actually want to understand this ill have to like put all the replies in a text document or something so they're actually in a sequence.

i guess i can at least ask the people who actually had the arguments for now. @ExLight and @HangryHangryHippo can you summarize why you think ogs is scum? if that is what you think.

the current day's events will take a bit of untangling to see what could potentially be construed a misunderstanding versus poor argumentation, but i'm not sure it looks that great anyway and i've decided to either make that a future me problem or ignore it altogether.

same.

---

Town and/or Mafia literally cannot win with me dying. I think mafia might have a slim chance, I will have to check in with Rag.

So I was wrong (again unfortunately) and it seems like both Town and Mafia can win but Mafia currently has a better chance at one option and Town has more chances but with them being at a lower percent of succeeding if I die. I dont think if I am night killed or day killed affects anything.

it's kind of vague, but i'm reading it as something that can help town or mafia, by giving them "chances" at "options" which may allow them to win the game if they succeed. the "chances" seem like they may be random chances with a set percentage of succeeding. if he dies, town's percent chances go down.

i'm not sure whether a townie would have an ability that can help town or mafia win. i guess maybe it helps town more? but assuming he's telling the truth and there isn't anything else, i think he probably is 3p. maybe it's something like, if either team wins through one of these options, he wins too? so he could win with either town or mafia? just a guess though. he also did seem confused about it, maybe he explained it poorly.

of course he could also be lying. about the whole thing or about parts of it. also it was vague and the things he said later were really confusing so there could also be a misunderstanding.

 

[lain]

but I can affirm with conviction that lynching him does not damage town in the way he's fearmongering us

hm. i see. by "the way he's fearmongering us" do you mean "we're guaranteed to lose" like what he was implying earlier or "it will hurt town's chances of winning" like he was saying later?

 

[Rubik]

Can someone sum up for me the last few pages of arguments cause I'm gonna be honest, I ain't reading all of that.

@ExLight you remind me of Stufful or Pancham.

I'm kinda interested in the fact that no one thought to discuss Rubik saying that he's like a super miller or something d1. Like what does that mean? You're town and will invest scum and also flip scum or something?

It means I'm a Miller who might appear guilty when investigated behind simple alignment copping.

I did see where you said his one post was a scum slip. I think I got why you thought that, but it definitely wasn't a scum slip. Ex was apparently contacted by someone in the night. He knows they are incenaroar, but not who they are. They must have told him that he reminds them of a certain Pokemon. So Ex is trying to figure out who contacted him by asking everyone to answer that question and see which answers matches the message he received last night. But he doesn't want the person's role to be outed so he asked everyone to do so, so that the actual Incenaroar is obscured amongst the other answers.

That makes sense, kind of figured it was something like that.

 

[ExLight]

guess i can at least ask the people who actually had the arguments for now. @ExLight and @HangryHangryHippo can you summarize why you think ogs is scum? if that is what you think.

my iso on him (the post breakdown analyzing most of his posts) highlights why I'm scumleaning him at the moment

 

[lain]

my iso on him (the post breakdown analyzing most of his posts) highlights why I'm scumleaning him at the moment

ok i'll reread it

 

[ExLight]

to sum it up his constant rolefishing, aggressive hounding, attempts of intimidation, contradictory behavior regarding votes and theories, attempt to fearmonger us into not lynching him, push for a doctor lynch, and potential scum slip lead me to believe he's likely mafia